Thursday, September 25, 2008

Premier League Week 6 Predictions

Saturday
The Merseyside derby highlights the action for week 6 in the Premier League. Liverpool enters Goodison Park coming off last weekend's disappointing show against Stoke. Everton have looked like a different team than the one that grabbed fifth place last year. This match could be just the thing to light a fire under David Moyes' squad.

Elsewhere, the rest of the big four have relatively safe games they should take care of. A couple of marquee matchups are being held on Sunday, with Spurs visiting Pompey, and Man City walks into the JJB to face Wigan, fresh off being knocked out of the Carling Cup.

My predictions hit a little snag last week.
Prediction tally so far: 15 out of 29 (52%), with 4 exact.
Last week: 4 out of 10, with 0 exact.

Everton v Liverpool
Everton probably hoped for more than seven points from their first five, but after losing home games with Blackburn and Pompey, and playing all three promoted sides tight with two wins and a tie, it doesn't look all that bad for the Toffees. They have failed to look impressive in each of their matches, despite solid play from Mikel Arteta and the reappearence of Tim Cahill.

Cahill, who has two scores in two games for the Blues, will be a tough cover for the Liverpool defense. Look for Rafa to start both Alonso and Mascher to try and control the ball and keep it away from the Aussie international and Arteta.

The Reds will be looking to fire up Fernando Torres and Robbie Keane for this one. Neither player has really gotten off yet. El Nino has been hampered by injury, much like early last year, and Keano has just looked clueless. Rafa can be grateful for one thing, with no real legitimate strikers in reserve, he has no choice but to run the pair out for every game. If Keane continues to struggle into November, we may see a return to the 4-2-2-1-1 set up of last year, with Torres up top and Gerrard just behind.

For Saturday's match, I would like to see the lineup go something like this to start:

GK- Reina
RB- Skrtel CB- Carragher LB- Aurelio
LCM- Mascherano RCM- Alonso
RW- Kuyt LW- Riera
CAM- Gerrard
RS- Keane LS- Torres

Then a shot of Ryan Babel for Riera in the second half, followed by an injection of perhaps Benayoun for Kuyt late on. Babel and Benayoun rarely have 90 minutes of great football, and are better appropriated in the second half when needed for a spark.

This will be a physical game, where both squads will put it to each other. Everton always comes out and tries to out-physical the usually talent superior Reds. It is a heated rivalry and sometimes this tact can throw Liverpool off their game. David Moyes has tried to set this up by coming out saying he expects Liverpool to come hard with the physical play. He is merely setting up his own squad's gameplan.

Good mind games, I guess, a little too cheap and Sir-guson like for me though.

Everton 0-2 Liverpool

Aston Villa v Sunderland
The Villans are still looking strong heading into this match at Villa Park. Retaining Gareth Barry has provided them with a solid midfield, and allows Ashley Young to run free on the left side.

The Black Cats are usually good at the Stadium of Light, but have yet to really prove themselves away from home in the Prem. I do expect them to improve each week under Roy Keane, with a new squad and different style from last season. If not, he will start to feel the heat.
Aston Villa 2-1 Sunderland

Manchester United v Bolton
The Red Devils have yet to put together a great game. Once they do, look out. This could be the week, as Ronaldo has a few games and some fitness under his belt, and Berba, Rooney, and Tevez are getting to know each other up front. Not to mention they return to the comforts of Old Trafford.

Bolton did shock Man Utd. last season, in a 1-0 game. Expect them not to take them by surprise this time.
Man Utd 3-0 Bolton

Middlesbrough v West Brom
Gareth Southgate's squad had a rough go of it against Sunderland last week, but they are an improved team who will not take the newly promoted West Brom lightly.

West Brom look the least likely of the promoted clubs to stay up.
Middlesbrough 2-1 West Brom

Newcastle v Blackburn
Newcastle will parade out new manager Greg Kinnear on Saturday at St. James' Park. He was great in "As Good As It Gets". Really it is Joe Kinnear who gets the call, with a monthly contract. That sounds about right. Terry Venables turned down the Toon because he apparently has some dignity. Nice.

Blackburn is coming into the Toon at the right time.
Newcastle 0-1 Blackburn

Fulham v West Ham
Fulham, while not an overly impressive squad, has yet to look bad in a match this year. They may end up on the bottom half, but they will not get run over by too many teams.

West Ham has received a blow with Dean Ashton needing surgery, yet another problem for the Hammers to deal with. They have played well despite the off the field distractions.
Fulham 1-1 West Ham

Stoke City v Chelsea
Stoke escaped from Liverpool with a 0-0 draw after being outshot 30-2, and getting away with Gerrard's disallowed goal. Don't expect the same to happen against Chelsea.

The Blues whipped Pompey 4-0 for the second time this year at mid-week. They look like the strongest squad, but last year will remind them that they need to make sure they lock up 3 points when they are heavy favorites.
Stoke 0-2 Chelsea

Arsenal v Hull City
Arsenal is firing on all cylinders. There even younger reserves are even lighting things up. Top of the league means little at this point in the season, but hopefully they have learned their lesson after a poor final quarter last year.

Hull have been the surprise team of the league this year, even Craig Fagan has played well. Okay, he's been descent. Dean Windass will meet with management, to discuss his future with the club, after seeing his opportunities limited this season. His departure will only hurt Hull's depth.
Arsenal 3-1 Hull

Sunday
Portsmouth v Tottenham Hotspur
Harry Rednapp's club has been pretty inconsistent early on this year. They've suffered two 4-0 blowouts at the hands of Chelsea and one 6-0 lashing against Man City. They have also had impressive wins over 'Boro and Everton, and hung with Man Utd in a 0-1 loss. Hard to know which club will show up. Peter Crouch is still looking to get his PL campaign off the ground.

Spurs come in to Fratton Park at the bottom of the league. They will want to ride their mid week win over sorry Newcastle, where Pavlyuchenko opened his Spurs account. Getting any points at Pompey will further the momentum into there next three PL matches with promoted clubs Stoke and Hull, and bottom dwellers Bolton, a string they hope will get them nearer mid-table.
Portsmouth 2-1 Tottenham

Wigan v Manchester City
I like Wigan because they can lock it up against a powerhouse team and keep it close, or open the game up and pump in the goals. That's a good sign for a team looking to make the jump to the top half.

Man City lost at mid-week after their 6-0 throttling of Pompey last weekend. That kind of inconsistency can be expected from a squad with new faces in the lineup, not to mention that they 8 of the players from the Portsmouth match didn't play. Still no excuse for the loss. Which City will show up for this match at the JJB?
Wigan 1-2 Man City

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