Friday, August 29, 2008

Champions League Group Stage Predictions









Analyzing a Champions League draw is a chance for a team's negative supporters to bemoan their "impossible" group. You can actually find Arsenal fans that think they have had tough draws in the past couple of years. Chances are if you are a fan of one of the "Big4" in England, then you are the number one seed in your group, and finishing in the top two shouldn't be a problem.

Having said that, man does Liverpool have a tough group this year or what?

Truth is, it's hard to precisely know how difficult your group is, until the games start. Sometimes a team can come into the Champions League Group Stage near the bottom of their table, in terrible form. We can, however, use last year's form and this year's new signings as some sort of a barometer of who will come out of this round, into the final sixteen.

Group A:
Another stacked Chelsea squad looks to have a safe entry into the final 16. Roma has played well in the Champions League in recent years. Totti is a great big game player, and their loss of Mancini is offset by the signings of Baptiste and Riise (Chelsea should be happy to see him again). Bourdeaux could give Roma a challenge for the second spot. Where France has been Lyon and a bunch of talent feeder clubs for Spain, Italy, and England, in the past. It now looks like Bourdeaux, Marseille, and even Monaco could be forming a solid group with Lyon at the top of the Ligue. As for CFR Cluj, I won't insult you by pretending I've seen them play recently. My knowledge of Romanian football is limited to the masterful Gheorghe Hagi, and the fact that Adrian Mutu has done enough cocaine to make Maradona blush.
Prediction: 1) Chelsea 2)Roma 3)Bordeaux 4)CFR Cluj

Group B:
Jose Mourinho shouldn't have any trouble getting Inter past this stage with the group he's drawn. Werder Bremen has improved their attack, with Claudio Pizarro joining Markus Rosenberg and Diego up front. The lone Greek representative in this stage is Panathinaikos. They finished in third in Greece last year, and probably won't pose much of a threat to Inter or Bremen. Then again, I didn't think Olympiacos had much of a chance last year either. Anorthosis Famagusta is battle tested in Cyprus......I can't even finish that line. Their only hope is that their opponents all think it's a vacation when they come to Cyprus to play.
Prediction: 1)Inter 2)Werder Bremen 3)Panathinaikos 4)Anorthosis Famagusta

Group C:
This appears to be the weakest of the groups. Barcelona looks to dominate this foursome come September. Sporting Lisbon held on to Moutinho from Everton's charge, but they were a distant second to Porto in their own country last year. FC Basel seems to make it through the UEFA Cup in strong fashion, but will have to hope hold on at home against superior talent. Shakhtar Donesk was beaten pretty good last year in this stage, but the experience should help. They have a quick squad with a strong Brazilian contingent.
Prediction: 1)Barcelona 2)Shakhtar Donesk 3)Sporting Lisbon 4)FC Basel

Group D:
There are no pushovers in this group. If Liverpool thought had a tough time last year, this year's group looks more solid. They looked poor against Standard in the qualifier, and play like that will earn them an early exit in the CL. PSV has overtaken Ajax this decade as the best team in Holland. Andreas Isaakson has replaced Gomes in goal, and they have lost Jefferson Farfan, their top scorer. Marseille has suffered the loss of Samir Nasri and former Red, Djibril Cisse, but they still have a player in Mamadou Niang, who gave Liverpool fits last year in this stage. Plus, I can't believe I have to watch Boudewijn Zenden play again, I thought it was over when he left. Atletico Madrid is the real tough foe for the Reds in this draw. They used the sale of Fernando Torres to bring players and form a squad better than any El Nino played for while in Spain. The matchup will be much anticipated. They should be competing with Real Madrid, Villareal, and Barca for the top spot in La Liga, which could hurt them later on in the CL.
Prediction: 1)Liverpool 2)Atletico Madrid 3)PSV 4)Marseille

Group E:
Defending Champions Manchester United tend to like to get their group stage over with early. Villareal is going to be a worthy opponent for the Red Devils. Marcus Senna has become a Makalele-like force in the midfield for the Yellow Submarine, and the addition of Jozy Altidore could add some punch to their attack. Celtic is a team that refuses to back down for anyone. They challenged Barca last year, and can muck out wins with their physical play. Plus they have the best-named player in the world, Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink. Aalborg is Danish for 'hope for the Uefa Cup'.
Prediction: 1)Man U 2)Villareal 3)Celtic 4)Aalborg

Group F:
This group is tricky because of the chance that Lyon and Bayern could possibility knock the other one out with their head to head battles. Fiorentina is not up with the top four teams in Serie A and could have tough time here. They have added Gilardhino, who has shown diminishing returns for AC Milan in recent years, and they have Mutu, who had a drug problem, but according to the Fiorentina forums, is a family man who should be left alone. So disregard the Maradona's blushing thing. Steaua Bucharest is another Romanian team that I don't know much about, but Romania has two teams in the group stage, so maybe I should catch a Liga I game sometime, or not.
Prediction: 1)Bayern Munich 2)Lyon 3)Fiorentina 4)Steau Bucharest

Group G:
Arsenal's strong showing in their 4-0 trouncing of FC Twente shows they are in good Euro form, if not domestically just yet. Porto is always a tough CL team, and should give the Gunners are run for the top spot. Fenerbache will be a contender in this group as well. They've added Spanish forward Daniel Guiza, and they have a strong Turkish base, with a some of the players that made up the magical Turkish national team at Euro 2008. Dynamo Kiev won't be able to match the success of their Ukranian rival, Shakhtar. This group will be very close with Arsenal, Porto, and Fenerbache, neck and neck at the end.
Prediction: 1)Arsenal 2)Fenerbache 3)Porto 4)Dynamo Kiev

Group H:
Like group F, the group features two national powerhouses in Real Madrid and Juventus. Zenit, UEFA Cup Champions are not going to be pushovers, but the loss of Pavlyuchenko and having a pouting figure in Arshavin on the squad, could prove to be too much to overcome. Juve and Madrid are both looking good. Funny side story, I was watching The Colbert Report last night, where a politician joked, and I'm paraphrasing, hey, the U.S. may be struggling, but it's not like we are Belarus. Then Colbert put up the stat of America's unemployment rate (5.7%), versus the same in Belarus (1.6%). The hilarious fact is in place of me talking about Belrussian dominators, Bate Borisov.
Prediction: 1)Real Madrid 2)Juventus 3)Zenit St. Petersburg 4)Bate Borisov

No comments: